So this weekend it's all kicks-off for real. Sunday is the big NFL gameday in the States surrounded by the ever growing in popularity Thursday night game and the traditional Monday Night Football.
As the phrase we're familiar with goes, 'it matters more when there's money on it'. I think we all agree there. The model I use attempts to detect value in the matchups between the teams. Over here we don't really bother with all that handicap stuff and betting on the 'money lines' nonsense, we like our accumulators, so I'm going to use my model to try and conjure up a decent accumulator for some interest over the weekend.
Using my model of I'm going to present four matchups where I think a team is 'undervalued'. This means were betting on four teams that have a better chance of winning than their odds suggest. Basically it's a value accumulator. Let's take a look at my four picks.
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Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens
In my first selection the Buffalo Bills travel to one of the most well run franchises in the NFL in the Baltimore Ravens. Last year the Bills QB Tyrod Taylor blossomed under centre and his ability to manage the game has grown exponentially.
Their rushing attack was also impressive last season and I feel this could be key in managing the clock against the Ravens. The Ravens are still a decent outfit but two of their main assets in QB Joe Flacco and WR Steve Smith are coming back off season ending injuries in 2015.
Yes, we've had preseason but there still could be some residual real game rust. The Ravens may also start with two rookies on the offensive line and this could be exploited by the defensive specialist coaching the Bills in Rex Ryan.
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I see a certain amount of fragility with the Ravens who could get going perhaps later on in the season. The Bills should be good to go and I expect WR Sammy Watkins to seriously influence the game.
Overall I think the Ravens are being overvalued here because of the franchise brand and home advantage. This means the market is undervaluing the chances of the Bills. I see genuine value in the Bills price of 8/5. It should be close but were definitely getting the value in this one.
Minnesota @ Tennessee
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The Minnesota Vikings are really good. No I mean they are seriously a good football team. The Titans are generally what we've come to know as a bad football team.
Yes, all the headlines will tell you that the injury to Teddy Bridgewater at QB for the Vikings has wrecked their season's chances but it hasn't. They quickly tied up a deal to bring in borderline journeyman QB Sam Bradford to lead the franchise.
People choked at the draft picks the Viking gave up but it indicated to me that the Vikings front office feel they can win now and want the best chance possible to do that.
Bradford is average, at times he can look good but all the Vikings need is average and they should be a winning team considering their roster. Don't forget last year in the Playoffs this team was a Field Goal away from defeating the Seattle Seahawks and they're really good.
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The Titans do have some hope in QB Marcus Mariota and the pieces on the roster finally seem to resemble a functioning football team but they still have to prove it.
I think the market here is again undervaluing how much of favourites Minnesota are in this game. We're getting 4/5 about a team that really should be 4/7. Take the Vikings at 4/5 for our accumulator.
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
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Again another example of one last year's bad teams playing an average team, at the average team's home stadium. Again the weaker team have hope in Jameis Winston who could well turn into a genuine top ten QB this year.
Winston has offensive talent to work with especially in WRs Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. I think this season Tampa will be dangerous but I'm not sure it'll be week 1 on the road. Atlanta looked good early on last season before a six game losing streak soon derailed the train.
They added pass-rusher Dwight Freeney in the off season and I feel they could have some success against this Buccs O-Line. They also should have genuine star receiver Juilo Jones to look for downfield as I expect he'll be fit to play (according to reports).
Again I feel the hype in this game surrounds the Buccaneers and Winston who people are expecting great things from. Matt Ryan at QB for the Falcons is pretty much a plain-brown envelope of a QB but he's efficient and fairly reliable.
This Jazz of Tampa is forcing the market to undervalue the chances of the Falcons for me. Again they're 4/5 shots when they should be favoured more heavily. Take the Falcons at 4/5.
Los Angeles @ San Francisco
Odd really that the NFL would choose this as a Monday Night game because this is a bad football game. Two pretty awful teams but we don't care as long as we on the less awful team, right? Well we should be.
Both teams look in relative crisis at QB, you'll hear that phrase a lot during the season for many teams. Case Keenum should be starting for the Rams as draft pick Goff looks incapable of even calling a play to be honest. Blaine Gabbert looks certain to start for the 49ers at QB as Kaepernick will probably staging some sort of sit-in protest somewhere.
Last season both teams really struggled to score points and the Rams sole hopes seem at the moment to be resting on star RB Todd Gurley's shoulders. That's a lot of pressure and I expect he'll be the focus of the Rams offense.
I rate Chip Kelly and I genuinely think the man is perhaps ahead of his time. Yes, he butchered things at Philly last year but I feel with less of a say in personnel it will allow him to focus more where it counts, on the field. I see potential in his philosophy and think it can definitely have that instant jolt-factor for a franchise.
I expect the 49ers will perhaps win more games and certainly be competitive in more games than people think. To me this is a genuine 50/50 and in that I'd still favour the 49ers and coaching of Kelly but with the bookies we're getting 5/4 about a home team and I genuinely think that's value. Take the 49ers at 5/4 to wrap up our accumulator.
So all in all we've got four decent value picks and I think the accumulator has a nice chance of landing. Its odds should be around 17/1 and you could spend worse ways to gamble a fiver away. Happy punting.
Words by: Jamie Morrall
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