This Saturday we see the culmination of the York Ebor Festival, day 4 of a feast of racing that has seen the Yorkshire Oaks, The Nunthorpe, The Juddmonte and plenty of other cracking races. However, Saturday is the main day on the Knavesmire as this is host to the feature race of the meeting; The Ebor Heratige Handicap over 1 mile 6 furlongs.
We look like getting a bit of rain in the area on Friday and Saturday, so I will be previewing races as if there is more good than good to firm which has been present on day's 1 & 2. And, with that caveat out the way, lets press on to the Saturday action.
1.45 - Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Stakes (Handicap)
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Initially I wanted to back a three year old in this handicap that opens the Saturday card, that is until I looked down at the previous 11 winners and found that precisely 0 three year olds had managed to win the race in this time period.
This is especially interesting given the head of the market appears to feature a few three year olds, so may give us a slight advantage if this trend is continued. Indeed, another trend that struck me was that Richard Fahey has taken this race three times in that time period, and his runner Imshivilla looks quite interesting to me.
Earlier this year she won a good handicap at Epsom over this distance off a mark 4 lbs lower than this, but since that race she ran on the all weather (may not have acted), over a mile (where she was a good 4th) and then at Goodwood, where the ground may have been too firm.
This horse will appreciate all the rain that comes now, and back at her ideal trip with ground set to suit she is the each way selection in the opening race.
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2.15 -Betfred Mobile Strensall Stakes (Group 3)
Up next we have a good looking Group 3 race in which I am taking a horse to step out of the shadow of his more illustrious stablemate, and horse he is often given pacemaking duties to, Time Test and show just how good he is in his own right.
Countermeasure is the selection for me here, a horse taking a significant class drop having contested Group 2 and 1 races the last twice (and running with credit each time). Both those races have shown this horse to be a talented individual, and he has plenty of experience on softer ground in his past form.
Now he has his chance to show just how good he is in his own right and I expect him to certainly make the frame.
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2.50 -Betfred Melrose Stakes (Handicap)
In race three, a three year old handicap, I'm taking the trainer of the winner last year in Mark Johnston to provide the 2016 winner in the shape of Jaameh.
The selection has caught my eye the last twice, firstly at Ripon where he was beaten by the progressive Knights Table but ran with credit on ground firmer than ideal and the last day, when staying on very nicely over 14 furlongs at Goodwood (turning form around with Knights Table).
The way he was going at the end of that race makes this extra 2 furlongs in trip look certain to suit and with a bit of give in the ground also ideal considering the impression he left when romping to victory in soft ground at Haydock earlier this season Jaameh is the selection here.
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3.25 - Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2)
This is a seriously hot 2 year old race, with plenty of horses bringing very good form in the book to the table. I really fancied Blue Point to win at Goodwood the last day given the impression he had left following his 2 runs earlier this season. However, he was beaten by Mehmas, who produced one of the 2 year old performances of the season that day to take glory.
Blue Point shaped well in behind however, only going down by a neck, is certainly suited by this 6 furlong trip (whereas some, like The Last Lion and Global Applause seem suited by 5 furlongs) and gets William Buick back on board, who won on him on debut.
This looks a very good race, but I really liked Blue Point the first two times I saw him this season and do not want to desert him after a sole defeat.
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4.00 -Betfred Ebor Heritage Handicap
The big race of the day, and indeed the feature race of the whole festival, the Ebor Heritage Handicap. And it isn't an easy one to get the winner of, with 25/, 33/1 and 25/1 winners in the last 5 renewals of the race so don't be put off if your selection is a big price!
Unfortunately, past weights carried by winners are slightly redundant as the race has got classier and classier, indeed 2 winners of the last 5 renewals wouldn't even get into the race this year! However, I would still advise looking to the lower end of the weights, and maybe consider these other stats while narrowing down your pick...
- 8 of the last 10 winners had won over 1m 6f or further
- 8 of the 9 winners at York came from a double figure stall
- 7 of the last 10 winners had won that season
- 7 of the last 10 winners had run no more than 4 times that season
Now, I'm not going to put up a horse who fills all of those trends, but the one I am suggesting is drawn 10, has won over course and distance, carries under 9 stone and has won this season. The pick for the Ebor is Shrewd for Iain Jardine who is enjoying an excellent season.
Fine young apprentice Clifford Lee takes the ride, hence the lovely low weight after Lee's 7lbs claim is taken into account, and Shrewd comes here in fine fettle. He looks a horse who is continually progressive on the flat having made a very successful switch from the jumps code and this is very encouraging for his stamina reserves.
As I say, he has won over this distance and over this course actually, will love a bit of give in the ground and looks like being a juicy e/w price for the feature race of the day.
4.35 - Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed)
The penultimate race of the say is a 2 year old race over 5 furlongs and it looks a tricky one, with plenty of unexposed types. I certainly couldn't be confident here but would go for potentially the most unexposed in the unbeaten Sutter County for Mark Johnston.
The trainer has a fine record with 2 year old horses, and unlike a few of these who would prefer 6 furlongs or a stiff 5, the speed test of a York 5 furlong race should suit Sutter County down to the ground. He acts on ground with a bit of dig in, has been freshened up after his last run and could well have been kept for this race by Johnston.
5.05 -Betfred Apprentice Stakes (Handicap)
Finally, we end with an apprentice handicap over 5 furlongs and as the name suggests it is restricted to apprentice riders. Therefore, it is often an advantage to look for a rider who knows what they are doing on a horse and in Callum Shepherd I think we have one on the selection, El Astronaute for the John Quinn yard.
He ran well at Goodwood at the Glorious Goodwood Festival but was drawn on the wrong side which made things very tough, so definitely upgrade his 10th place finish that day.
The handicapper is starting to give him a chance now, he is actually 1 lbs lower than his last winning mark, and I think it is only a matter of time before he strikes in one of these sprint handicaps.
Many thanks for reading and good luck of you play!
Words by: Alex Bellew
Selections
1.45 Imshivilla e/w
2.15 Countermeasure
2.50 Jaameh e/w
3.25 Blue Point
4.00 Shrewd e/w
4.35 Sutter County
5.05 El Astronaute e/w
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